Can you believe it? The whole world is in chaos and accelerating wildly — we’re witnessing history every day. The situation with the tariff war is changing rapidly, but America’s intentions are becoming increasingly clear.
The latest development: in response to our countermeasures, on April 9th, Trump announced yet again an increase in tariffs on us to 125%. Subsequently, a White House executive order revealed that the cumulative tariff rate on Chinese goods has now reached 145%. At the same time, for most other countries, the U.S. is temporarily suspending reciprocal tariffs for 90 days but keeping a so-called 10% base tariff. Additionally, the U.S. has deliberately sent a signal that over 75% of countries are in negotiations with them.
We’ll analyze the implications of these signals in a more systematic way later.
Many people say Trump has “chickened out.” I’d say that’s a superficial view, based more on face-saving sentiment. For a transactional politician like Trump, decisions to advance or retreat can change in an instant. What I see here is not cowardice, but ruthlessness and cunning — I’ll explain more shortly.
As I mentioned before, this tariff war is clearly directed at China — there’s no room to dodge. We’re now in the most intense phase of the trade conflict. Since the world has gone mad, today I’d like to share some more fundamental observations: the possible three stages of this tariff war and an analysis of Trump himself — all from my personal perspective, for your reference.
Let’s get to it.
The Three Possible Stages of the Tariff War
Looking at things now, Trump’s tariff war seems likely to unfold in three stages.
Stage One was what we’ve already seen — a global, indiscriminate imposition of tariffs. But beyond the actual collection of money, it was essentially a “compliance test.” Trump was dissatisfied with the traditional alliance system of the U.S. and wants to build a new circle of obedience. The key criterion here is not mutual benefit, but how obedient you are.
For instance, the White House stated that Canada and Mexico would not enjoy the 90-day tariff suspension because they did not yield to U.S. demands. From the announcement, we can infer that those countries that were “spared” in this round only barely passed and will continue to be evaluated. This fits the style of a transactional politician. Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman summed it up well — Trump’s approach is a “performance of hegemony” aimed at intimidating others into submission.
So, Stage One was a global pressure test. And based on current results, Trump hasn’t failed — many countries have at least verbally expressed willingness to comply. The tough stance of countries like China was expected. This first stage evolved from what seemed like a chaotic global trade war into a more focused, targeted confrontation. China was always the main target, while other countries were used to set the stage and amplify tension.
Stage Two is the upcoming 90-day window Trump referred to. What might happen? First, continued tariff increases against China to create a confrontational atmosphere — this could support a broader financial or technological “unrestricted war” against China. Whatever flashy tactics may follow, they’re all ultimately aimed at China. The strategy is to reshuffle global trade rules through a mix of carrots and sticks.
This reveals Trump’s transactional diplomacy: full of bluffs and real threats, highly flexible, and opportunistic. He proudly calls it “policy flexibility,” and he has no psychological barrier to jumping back and forth. Don’t mock him for this — it’s actually his political strength, even a powerful weapon. I’ll elaborate on that later.
In these 90 days, if the U.S. and China reach a new understanding and establish boundaries, the countries currently spared may no longer be needed. Trump could then resume tariffs on them, using any excuse, with the logic: “I’ve dealt with my biggest challenger — what chance do the rest of you have?”
But if the U.S. and China fail to come to terms, Trump will continue pressuring China. As for the countries temporarily spared from tariffs — either they fully submit and serve as tools to contain China, or they’ll be strung along with another 90-day delay. In this phase, coercion and inducement will definitely be in play. Previously, U.S. Treasury Secretary Besant explicitly stated that the tariff policy targets China and publicly warned countries like Spain not to get too close to China or risk retaliation.
You might wonder: Why 90 days, not 60 or 30? My view is that the issues are important and complex. If it were just about tariffs, that would be simpler — some countries even advocate zero tariffs. If it were only about trade deficits, that too is straightforward: just buy more U.S. goods. The U.S. and China have discussed this before. But I believe this 90-day window may also be used to force countries to take sides, like auditing export origins to block transshipment through third countries.
Some people think China can resume exports via third-country routes since others are spared. I think that’s naive. Even under the Biden administration’s “friend-shoring” approach, a lot of the so-called re-routed goods were still Chinese-made. If Trump wants to plug the holes, he can — my wording is intentional. He may also choose to ignore them temporarily to avoid inflation pressure during these 90 days.
Also, the U.S. might need longer time to negotiate with China. One or two months wouldn’t be enough — so 90 days is a safer window.
That said, Trump’s strategy of forcing others to take sides may run into trouble. If even America’s closest allies get dumped at will, who can really trust the U.S. to have their back? Let’s observe how that plays out.
If no agreement is reached during Stage Two, the trade war will likely enter a prolonged Stage Three, potentially expanding into more sectors.
We’re already seeing signs — the U.S. is targeting China in tech by restricting access to U.S. scientific databases. In return, China is hitting back not only with tariffs but also with restrictions in movies, service trade, etc. Ministries such as Culture and Tourism and Education have issued travel and study abroad warnings for the U.S.
Interestingly, China also recently held its first Central Neighborhood Diplomacy Conference, signaling tighter coordination with regional partners.
Ultimately, this is a battle of endurance and strength. For now, both sides are playing a high-stakes game of chicken. As I’ve said before, great power rivalries don’t resolve without a clash to the edge. That’s the destiny of competitors — especially with someone like Trump.
Our historical experience has shown: “Struggle leads to peace, surrender leads to humiliation.” I believe China isn’t fighting because it wants to — it’s because there’s no other option.
Reassessing Trump
Now, let’s talk about Trump.
Many people mock him as a “madman” or a “psychopath.”
I disagree.
Remember, Trump is (or was) the President of the United States — one of the most powerful individuals in the world, backed by a massive team. He can’t be stupid. The only explanation is that his goals differ fundamentally from traditional international norms — and that’s what people fail to understand. More and more, I believe he’s not mad — he’s ruthless and cunning.
rivalry as a long-term fight, akin to an octagon cage match. He’s more concerned about the long-term, subtle tech war. To achieve ultimate victory, China and the U.S. can cooperate, compete, or even confront.
Trump, on the other hand, saw the U.S.-China rivalry as a grand stage to showcase his personal influence. He was more focused on short-term, dramatic, high-conflict tariff wars and trade wars. His political logic became a “transactional diplomacy” to solve America’s “domestic issues.” What is transactional diplomacy? It emphasizes exchanges of interests and short-term results in foreign policy. It can be understood as the commercialization of politics and the commodification of diplomacy. For example, when persuading the public, Trump said that raising tariffs was necessary to meet the needs of domestic tax cuts.
This is also why Trump eagerly awaited China’s calls—because, as a businessman and internet celebrity combined, Trump was strangely confident in his negotiation skills.
Yes, we are facing such a U.S. president, and the collapse of the old world order started with him.
Regarding the tariff war and China’s response and impact, I will discuss that later.
