“Trump Universe” Phase Two Begins? Highlights of the 2024 U.S. Election
It’s time to talk about the U.S. election. After 48 hours of global attention, the picture of the election is becoming clearer. Yesterday, 24 hours after the election began, The New York Times released a prediction showing Trump with a 90% chance of winning, potentially securing 301 electoral votes.
Firstly, according to U.S. election rules, a candidate needs only 270 electoral votes to win. Secondly, The New York Times has never missed in its election predictions. However, the twist is that, on November 5, their 600-person election prediction team went on strike, demanding higher pay—right in the middle of the election! Fortunately, they resumed work yesterday, whether due to a pay raise or renewed dedication.
Some say this unexpected strike is a metaphor for the entire U.S. election: full of twists and uncertainties. But now, these twists are nearing an end.
As of yesterday afternoon, U.S. media reported Trump had secured 277 electoral votes. Although he hasn’t been formally declared president, many Americans see this as an unofficial confirmation. According to a breaking news report from Xinhua News Agency on the morning of November 6 (U.S. time), Trump has announced victory in the 2024 presidential election.
There are already many reports on the specifics of the election process online, so we won’t delve into that. Instead, let’s look at some unique aspects of this election—the unprecedented “firsts” and “mosts” that have made it so noteworthy.
- The Most Unique Candidate Profiles in U.S. Election History
If Trump wins, he will be the first president since 1892 to return to office after losing a previous election. He’s also one of the few presidents to retain a strong presence post-defeat. Think about it—haven’t Trump’s memes been a constant presence online over the past four years?
If Harris wins, she will be the first female president in U.S. history and one of the biggest “dark horses” in election history. Up until Biden withdrew, few considered her a contender, and many didn’t even know who she was.
- The Most Dramatic U.S. Election
In terms of twists, this election rivals a political drama like House of Cards, arguably the most intense in U.S. election history. First, Trump was shot at; then he confirmed Vance as his running mate, marking the first peak of his campaign momentum. Trump frequently made controversial remarks, which Harris’s team often failed to leverage. For instance, in late October, Trump insulted Biden-supporting Puerto Rican voters as “floating on a garbage island.” Yet, Harris didn’t take advantage of this slip. A few days later, Biden called Trump supporters “trash,” but Trump’s brash persona meant his insults caused less backlash.
- The Most Party Defections in an Election
The Democrats have traditionally enjoyed solid support from academia and Silicon Valley. While academia has remained steadfast, with 82 Nobel laureates publicly endorsing Harris, Silicon Valley has seen defections. Elon Musk openly backed Trump, both financially and publicly, and Peter Thiel has long supported Trump, bridging a gap between Trump and the tech world.
Even The Washington Post, a Democratic stronghold since 1976, chose neutrality this year. Apparently, its owner, Jeff Bezos, had a prior feud with Trump, but seeing Trump’s favorable odds, he sought to ease tensions. Criticizing Harris would have seemed too forced, so the Post opted for neutrality.
- The Most Watched Election by the Tech Industry
Many tech companies likely support Trump due to his relaxed approach to tech industry regulation during his previous term. This is a hot period for AI and new technology, and many tech firms hope for minimal government interference. For instance, some speculated that under Democratic governance, Musk might never reach Mars due to regulatory hurdles.
Keep this “rocket-shark” metaphor in mind, as it’s a telling symbol we’ll revisit.
- The Most Former Presidents Involved in an Election
This election has seen the involvement of five presidents or former presidents: Biden, Obama, Clinton, Trump, and, surprisingly, Jimmy Carter, who’s been in hospice care for over a year. Carter voiced his support for Harris and is determined to live long enough to cast his vote for her.
But has this participation of former leaders increased the appeal of the candidates? Not necessarily. Many voters aren’t choosing based on support but rather on whom they find less disagreeable. As writer Scott Adams pointed out in Trump’s previous election against Hillary Clinton, people often choose the “less disliked” candidate. This seems to be Trump’s strategy: while people may dislike him, he ensures they dislike his opponents even more.
- The Most Expensive U.S. Election
According to Bloomberg, as of early November, 11,000 political teams spent a total of $14.7 billion on this election, covering advertising, events, online promotions, and more.
In short, this election has garnered attention as the first competition between a female candidate and a former president; it’s the first large-scale Silicon Valley defection to the Republicans; it’s The Washington Post’s first time remaining neutral since 1976; it’s one of the most expensive elections in U.S. history; perhaps the most twist-filled; and the election with the most former presidents in the mix.
Why Many Think Trump Will Lead
Many analyses cover both candidates’ policy promises and campaign strategies. But let’s zoom out to a bigger perspective: this isn’t merely a competition between two individuals but between two roles.
Trump represents the Republicans, and Harris the Democrats. In America, Democrats are seen as the “Mother Party,” embodying a nurturing approach, while the Republicans play a “Fatherly” role, emphasizing self-reliance and resilience. So, would Americans choose a “strict father” or a “caring mother”?
This choice depends on the times. In dangerous times, people may prefer the “father” for protection; in peaceful times, they may choose the “mother” for nurturing. Given recent global turmoil, this sentiment might explain many Americans’ choice.
Of course, presidential elections are influenced by more than just role perceptions. We’ve simply offered one way to view this election.
